The Osun election is the last off season election that will propel the country and particularly INEC in preparation for the General election next year. Going down memory lane, Osun election from 2007 has never been the same with the new dimension of opposition brought by the then Action Congress led by its National Leader Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu who actually masterminded the removal of PDP who through distrust, electoral malpractice usurped the 2003 election although many Osun indigenes still believes Baba Akande lost the election outrightly but that is a story for another day.
Aregbesola was the main candidate of AC and the electoral dynamics of 2007 election changed at the 2006 Oroki day celebration. The sympathy generated as a result of the near death escape of Aregbesola by PDP hoodlums made neutrals to have sympathy towards his candidacy. If you are from Osun and you are conversant with political matters at the time, you would remember the demand of Osogbo indigenes concerning the call of a University in the ancient town and how “gbagede Oro” a popular program on Osun State Broadcasting Cooperation where the then Governor Olagunsoye Oyinlola would be addressing issues concerning the State, every first Saturday of the month was always a blockbuster. The call for a University for Osogbo and the attack on Aregbesola actually propelled him and made him gain serious popularity in the State. We all remember the back and forth at the Election Petition Tribunal before he was later declared the winner.
I lay this background for us to understand the dynamics and the direction of Osun voters. The moment Osun indigenes sensed the power that be are trying to ostracized you, they will queue behind you and damn the consequences. That was what led to the rise in the popularity of Governor Ademola Adeleke. A man tagged as the “spoilt Brat” of the Adeleke family rose from obscurity to political prominent and his rise was characterised by the stubborness of Aregbesola, a man who supposed to know better the sympathetic and empathetic behavior of Osun indigenes. When Sen. Isiaka Adeleke died, the push from Osun West leader was that he should allow someone from Ede particularly Demola Adeleke to complete the term of his brother in the Senate, the refusal of Aregbesola then to that proposal in 2017 led to Demola Adeleke decamping to PDP and he won the Senate seat against the candidate of Aregbesola by a landslide. That led refusal led to APC losing power eventually in 2022.
I am very certain in the mind of Demola Adeleke prior to his brother’s death, he never had the dream of becoming Governor but the stubbornness and pride of one man who dream of becoming like Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu blinded his eyes to the eventuality that consumed our party.
Now, Demola is Governor, he defeated us terribly in 2022 and won all the Federal seats in 2023, the Osun indigenes are having the same sympathy and empathy they have had on eventual winners of Gubernatorial election on him again and his popularity is growing stronger. How can we break this hold that he has on Osun indigenes? What is making the people(neutrals) to be feeling that way towards him? What is going for him and what is making his”food” so tasty as it were that Osun people can’t get over?
1. Osun people don’t like the phrase “Godfatherism” and our candidate is viewed as a protege of Minister Oyetola who will if he win will do the bidding of the Minister(as perceived by the people)
2. The torment the APC government gave the Civil service from the time of Baba Akande, Aregbesola and Oyetola. Osun indigenes never see our party as a worker friendly party. Our party APC deliberately acted like the Civil service are opposition to our Government. Pensioners and Civil servants that voted and supported Aregbesola in 2007 later cursed the hell out of him when he was leaving in 2018 because of what he did to them. The same goes to Former Governor Oyetola, I am saying this as someone who experienced it first hand before I left Osun civil service months after Governor Ademola Adeleke became Governor. The only employment Aregbesola did throughout his 8years was in 2013, promotion never. In 2022 when Minister Oyetola did promotion, they NLC and other association begged him to monetize the promotion for them, he refused. Many civil servants in Osun are short paid till date because many that are due for 2 or 3 promotions that Aregbesola supposed to give them during the half salary regime were not given and Oyetola who was seeking re-election refused to correct the anomaly created by his predecessor which Ademola Adeleke is correcting now. In his first term currently he has done promotion and I am still hearing another round is on the horizon.
3. Family reputation, the Adeleke family has a big reputation in the State which cannot be overemphasized
4. We have lost the appeal of the voting bloc of the Citizens, the market men and women, Okada riders, Bus drivers, traders , artisans who are primarily and naturally our voting bloc have all shifted towards Ademola Adeleke.
5. We cannot play the religious card to gain power because it’s obvious where the religious leaders in the State belong to now.
So what are the chances of my party APC?
We might be depending on Federal might but with the recent recalibration of the election calendar, the dynamics have changed in favor of Ademola Adeleke. The Osun election is too close to the Presidential election and any tinkering with that election if not handled carefully will be too heavy for APC to handle. Weighing the options, it is rather I hold on to Federal power and lose one state who can eventually decamp like Gov. Fintiri than risk Osun who brings little to the table as far as Federal vote is concerned.
Things are in favor of Ademola Adeleke now and if we don’t address these issues coupled with the fact of how our primaries went, we might stay in the opposition in the State for a very long time.
– Lanlehin Oluwaseun Peter
