Maybe this means we should vote ANC in 2019? South Africa is seriously replacing justice with corruption
You may find this interesting.
Allen Swiegers is a recent ex- senior partner of Deloitte – he is very well connected.
ANC Conference:
The evening before the famous elections both parties held rallies on soccer fields nearby with their supporters. Both parties agreed, based on their own counts, that Nkosazana would win by “between 200 and 230” votes. That was communicated to Cyril by his team and to Nkosazana and Jacob by their team.
At 22:00 that evening Cyril had a meeting with his team and after verifying the numbers he said “Well, all I can do now is to make a deal with the devil”.
Late that evening Cyril and David Mabuza made a deal for the approx. 200 Mpumalanga “Unity Delegates” to vote for Cyril.
The next day, when the voting started, the Mpumalanga delegates arrived at Nasrec singing “Cyril songs” which left Nkosazana and Jacob stunned. Cyril won by 179 votes!
(Did you see the photo of Jacob when the results were announced? I am told that he was hyper-ventilating like a person in shock.)
Few people realise that the person who got the most votes, of all the candidates in the various elections for party positions, is David Mabuza.
(Mabuza got 2 538 votes for Deputy, Cyril got 2 440 for President and Gwede got 2 418 for Chairman)
On the last evening of the conference, with most delegates having left, an interesting thing happened at 23:00 at night. The media somehow is a bit cagey about the events that evening or they were simply not there.
The Nkosazana camp proposed a motion to adopt “land expropriation without compensation” as a motion. Cyril’s camp opposed it and scuffles broke out amongst the delegates. Security was called in and they started removing some delegates. Cyil’s camp realised what was happening and that the Nkosozana camp’s strategy was to create mayhem and then, if security started throwing out delegates, they wanted to challenge the validity of the conference in a Court and have the entire conference (including the voting) declared null and void.
Cyril’s camp could not afford that to happen and he was called to rush back to the conference.
At 24:00 he made a deal with the ‘other camp’ to allow “land expropriation without compensation” to go through (for the sake of saving the conference) but only AFTER his side proposed EIGHT amendments to the motion;
most notably the clause about not impacting food security, the fact that it should not destabilise the financial markets (i.e. as long as you produce food and have a bond over your farm they can’t take it because the country and the banks will suffer) and the fact that there is a need for a proper debate and conference on HOW to expropriate.
The ‘other side’ was so hell bent on getting it through that they either did not pay attention or understood the 8 amendments!
(Very interesting is the fact that Julius has picked up on the eight amendments! That’s why he said in parliament that the ANC “is not serious about expropriation” and he said “nobody is panicking because they saw your amendments”)
Luthuli House:
This is where Cyril’s real problems are.
Remember, Jacob had Cyril as his Deputy and Gwede as his Secretary-General in Luthuli House. Despite having them there, he still caused chaos. (Imagine if they weren’t there!)
Now, Cyril has Mabuza as his Deputy and Ace as his Secretary-General. A scary team to lead, especially if they were not picked by you!! (Just think of a sports team!)
On top of that, Luthuli House skilfully deployed Bathabile and Nkosazana to ‘rubbish’ portfolios BUT in the Office of the President, i.e. they physically sit in the Union Buildings and watch his every move. (Imagine trying to operate under those circumstances!)
Rumour has it that he is tolerating Ace for the time being knowing very well that the NPA will take care of that problem. There is apparently more than enough to move on Ace and move decisively but they are making 100% sure which charge (out of the various options!) is totally fool proof.
Although there is enough to also move on Mabuza (on more serious charges) they can’t afford to move on him because of the deals that they made with him. (Remember, Mabuza is also the person who nominated Cyril as Deputy at the Mangaung Conference 4 years ago, much to Zuma’s opposition. Mabuza then organised the vote for Cyril to become Deputy!) Cyril owes him big.
Cyril is a brilliant politician and handled the Zuma re-call brilliantly and swiftly. Three of the Top 6 (Mabuza, Ace and Jesse Duarte) were against the re-call but he got the ANC NEC (Top 80) to delegate the decision to the National Working Committee (Top 20).
His supporters control the National Working Committee and they decided to re-call Zuma “as instructed by the NEC to deal swiftly with the matter” and then, to add insult, he sent Ace and Jesse Duarte (the 2 biggest Zuma supporters in the Top 6) to Zuma’s house to go and break the news to him!! They could not refuse to go as they would have been in defiance of an ANC NEC decision, which will lead to automatic expulsion, and Zuma could not believe it when the two of them told him to go!! Brilliant move! Also, the message that the National Working Committee took the decision for him to be re-called stunned Zuma as both Nkosozana and Bathabile are members of the National Working Committee! Ouch. (Rumour has it that Zuma then spoke to the Army Generals but Cyril pre-empted that and already had the support of the Army)
The 2019 Election:
He has to survive the National election in 2019. For that to happen he needs Nkosazana (Zulu’s in KZN) and Bathabile (Women). If he survives the 2019 election he will start making the real moves. For the time being, by keeping those 2 on the NEC and as ‘senior leaders’ they cannot campaign against the ANC or against him,
At this stage, he has made great moves at Finance, at Public Entities, at SARS, he appointed his brother-in-law as Energy Minister to ensure that the nuclear deal does NOT happen, and he’s made some other good appointments. Sadly, that is as far as he was ‘allowed’ to go by Luthuli House.
The major problem in 2019 is Julius and the perceived threat that the EFF poses (that’s why he needs Bathabile, Nkosozana and Mabuza). An interesting debate happening now is whether or not Julius does pose a real threat. Everybody knows that the EFF did a lot better in the August Municipal elections but few people realise that the EFF’s actual number of votes remained static from the previous National elections. The ANC’s number of votes dropped drastically in the August Municipal elections because of a large ‘stay away vote’ (as ANC members did not want to vote against the ANC but also could not stomach voting for Zuma’s ANC!). The result was an increase in the EFF’s percentages (and an increase in perceived popularity in the minds of the public) but not in their number of supporters. The ANC is trying to work out whether or not the EFF is a real threat but general consensus is that its ‘safer’ to have the EFF on the ANC’s side rather than against them in a National election.
Where does that leave South Africa?
On a knife’s edge!!! As someone in the Cabinet put it very eloquently “we are one poisonous mushroom away from a great Government after 2019 or total destruction”!!
Let’s hope Cyril has good doctors and chefs who check the mushrooms before they serve them!
Imagine a Presidency of Mabuza with Nkosazana as his Deputy and a Luthuli House with Ace and the North West premier as his Deputy!! Its one poisonous mushroom away!
Allen Swiegers
