The City Boy Movement has rejected calls for the return of petrol subsidy, arguing that recent increases in pump prices are being driven largely by global geopolitical tensions and rising international crude oil prices.
The group, through its National Director of Students Engagement and Senior Special Assistant to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu on Students Engagement, Sunday Asefon, urged Nigerians to resist what it described as attempts by “subsidy merchants” to use the current economic hardship to pressure the Federal Government into reversing the downstream petroleum reforms introduced in 2023.
Asefon, in a statement, said the rise in petrol prices from pre-May 2023 levels to about N1,300 to N1,400 per litre could not be attributed solely to subsidy removal.
He pointed to developments in the international oil market, particularly the conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran, as a major factor contributing to recent price pressures.
According to him, any significant disruption around the Strait of Hormuz, a major route for global oil shipments, could push crude prices higher and increase fuel costs in oil-importing countries.
Asefon said the situation highlighted the need for Nigeria to expand domestic refining capacity and reduce its dependence on imported petroleum products.
He claimed that without the Dangote Refinery, petrol prices in Nigeria could have risen to between N5,000 and N6,000 per litre amid the current international crisis, citing comments attributed to the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria.
“Without Dangote Refinery, the price of petrol in Nigeria today will be around N5,000 per litre,” Asefon said.
He said the 650,000-barrel-per-day Dangote Refinery was producing about 32 million litres of petroleum products daily and had helped reduce Nigeria’s dependence on imported fuel.
The presidential aide also said domestic refining had contributed to a decline in petrol import expenditure and reduced pressure on the country’s foreign exchange requirements.
He argued that the deregulated market had also made petrol comparatively cheaper in Nigeria than in some neighbouring West African countries.
Asefon quoted Aliko Dangote as saying that Nigerians were paying about 55 per cent of the price paid for petrol in some other West African countries, where pump prices were reportedly between N1,600 and N1,700 per litre.
He maintained that reversing subsidy removal would discourage investment in domestic refining and return Nigeria to its previous dependence on imported petroleum products.
Asefon described the former subsidy regime as unsustainable, claiming that it consumed substantial public resources without generating corresponding investment in local refining.
He cited a previous estimate attributed to former Minister of Finance Wale Edun that petrol subsidy and associated foreign exchange costs consumed about five per cent of Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product, equivalent to roughly $20 billion annually.
According to Asefon, resources released by the reforms were being redirected into infrastructure, social investment and support for subnational governments.
He also cited the Presidential Compressed Natural Gas initiative, saying investment in the CNG sector had reached about $980 million within 18 months and that the number of CNG-powered vehicles had increased.
Asefon claimed that motorists who converted their vehicles to CNG were recording fuel-cost savings of up to 90 per cent.
He further listed the Nigerian Education Loan Fund, consumer credit programme, livelihood support to states, the N70,000 national minimum wage and the N77,000 NYSC allowance among measures introduced by the administration.
On taxation, he said the government’s tax reforms were intended to create a more favourable business environment while protecting low-income earners from excessive taxation.
Acknowledging the economic hardship facing Nigerians, Asefon said the government should not pretend that the situation was easy.
“Yes, I understand there is pain. Petrol at N1,300 is painful. Inflation is moderating, but food prices are still high. I am not going to stand here and pretend that everything is perfect,” he said.
He, however, challenged advocates of a return to subsidy to explain how the government would finance the policy without recreating the distortions and import dependence associated with the previous system.
Asefon argued that returning to heavy petroleum imports amid heightened geopolitical tensions could expose Nigeria to higher pump prices, fuel shortages and renewed dependence on foreign suppliers.
He described subsidy removal as a “necessary surgery”, saying the country was now in a recovery phase despite the additional pressure from global economic and geopolitical developments.
The City Boy Movement therefore called for continued implementation of the reforms, arguing that increased domestic refining, expansion of CNG infrastructure and other measures would strengthen Nigeria’s energy security and reduce its exposure to external shocks.
