Nigeria’s ₦54.99 trillion 2025 budget has already hit turbulence—not because we lack resources, but because our economic planning remains dangerously dependent on a single commodity which is crude oil. With prices now sliding to $66 per barrel, we are once again reminded of the fragility of our fiscal structure and the urgent need to rethink our national revenue model.
The question is simple but piercing: Why does the Nigerian government still rely on oil as the primary source of budget funding when we have multiple billion-naira revenue streams across various sectors?
From the Federal Inland Revenue Service to state tax boards, from the Nigeria Maritime Administration and Safety Agency to the Nigeria Customs Service, from the Nigeria Civil Aviation Authority to the Federal Airports Authority of Nigeria, and even income from treasury bills, Nigeria has more than enough internally generated revenue sources to significantly reduce oil dependence.
The Federal Inland Revenue Service collects trillions annually in corporate and personal taxes. With proper compliance enforcement and anti-corruption mechanisms, tax revenue alone could fund major national projects.
The Nigeria Maritime Administration and Safety Agency oversees maritime safety and shipping levies, generating billions of naira each year. If transparently remitted, its revenue could sustain at least six states in Nigeria.
Import and export duties collected by the Nigeria Customs Service are a major revenue source, yet much of it is lost to leakages and underreporting.
The aviation sector, through the NCAA and FAAN, generates significant income from ticket sales, landing fees, and airport concessions, yet these funds barely impact the national budget.
Interest yields from government securities such as treasury bills and bonds offer steady returns, but these are not effectively incorporated into long-term budget planning.
Beyond these established agencies, Nigeria possesses immense mineral wealth. Gold, lithium, coal, iron ore, and bitumen are just a few examples. Yet the sector remains largely untapped, not due to a lack of resources, but because of systemic neglect.
From my company’s direct involvement in mining, the reality is sobering. Mining is capital intensive, and without government-backed intervention funds, most artisanal miners operate at survival level. The little work we manage to do requires significant capital, yet there are no accessible credit facilities to help scale production. In many cases, the elite have carved up mineral-rich territories among themselves, discouraging public awareness and investment in the sector.
This is deliberate economic sabotage. If even 30 percent of our mining potential was fully developed and Nigeria transitioned from a consuming to a producing nation, we could rival leading African mineral exporters. This would create jobs, diversify exports, and boost foreign reserves.
To break free from oil dependency, Nigeria needs structural change, not just speeches. I propose the following:
First, every state should be required to generate at least 55 percent of its own annual expenditure, with the federal government supporting the remaining 45 percent. This will compel governors to invest in agriculture, mining, manufacturing, and services rather than relying on monthly federal allocations.
Second, revenue-generating agencies like Customs, NIMASA, FAAN, NCAA, and NPA must operate as profit-oriented enterprises. Their salaries and operational costs should be covered by their internally generated revenue, not by the federal budget. This will encourage productivity and eliminate waste.
Third, all internally generated revenue should pass through a central treasury monitoring system with real-time public dashboards. Every Nigerian should be able to see what each agency earns and remits each month.
Fourth, the government should establish a National Mining Support Fund offering single-digit interest rates for licensed miners, especially artisanal operators, to help them scale production. This fund can be supported through diaspora contributions and sovereign wealth resources.
Fifth, we need to eliminate leakages in Customs and ports by introducing end-to-end cargo tracking technology to combat under-declaration, smuggling, and bribery at ports and border posts.
We are a nation of over 200 million people, blessed with natural resources, a young workforce, and a strategic location in Africa. Yet a single fluctuation in oil prices throws our budget into crisis. This is not just poor economic management, it is a deliberate refusal to diversify.
If our leaders do not urgently restructure revenue generation and enforce accountability, we will keep sinking deeper into debt, poverty, and dependency. Oil should be an advantage, not a crutch.
I am challenging the federal government to audit all revenue-generating agencies and publish their actual earnings. It must commit to diversifying the economy in a measurable, time-bound manner and support sectors like mining, agriculture, manufacturing, and ICT with the same urgency given to oil.
Nigeria does not have a revenue problem. We have a management and accountability problem. The day we fix that, oil price fluctuations will no longer dictate our economic survival.
The government must decide: will it continue to hold the nation hostage to oil prices, or will it finally unleash Nigeria’s full economic potential?
By Dr. Tofunmi Ogunronbi
