The national debate on inflation follows a tired script. Blame the Central Bank. Blame the dollar. Blame oil prices in London. What we rarely do is look inward. After observing market behaviour and public reaction to policy shifts, one conclusion is hard to escape: much of the inflation Nigerians endure is self inflicted. Government policy matters. Global shocks matter. But private behaviour matters more.
Panic buying and hoarding have aided this self inflicted inflation. The moment a policy shift is announced, or a rumour circulates, markets react. Fuel queues lengthen not because supply stopped, but because demand spiked overnight. Traders withhold goods to create artificial scarcity. The price of rice jumps 30% before any policy even takes effect. That is not imported inflation. It is inflation we produce at home.
Opportunism tax follows, in Lagos markets, a ₦50 rise in the dollar triggers a ₦500 hike on imported goods within hours. When the dollar retreats, prices hold. The unspoken rule of commerce is clear “whatever goes up never comes down” Landlords peg rent to the dollar for houses built with cement from our locality, transporters raise fares with every fuel adjustment then ignore reversals. This is not market economics. It is exploitation dressed as survival.
Dollar obsession can’t be overlooked as well, the average Nigerian now prices life in dollars. Salaries are benchmarked to this same dollar rise. Rent is quoted in it. Savings also flee to it. This collective vote of no confidence in the naira creates its own pressure. When millions convert income to dollars as a store of value, the naira weakens. The inflation that follows is a loop we built ourselves.
The consumption is a thing to look into. We maintain imported tastes on local productivity. Toothpicks, tomatoes, and textiles are shipped in despite viable alternatives. The demand for dollars to fund this lifestyle outstrips supply. The result is mathematical, a weaker naira, higher import costs, and rising shelf prices.
This is not a defence of government. Monetary mismanagement is real. Fiscal recklessness is real. But no policy forces a trader in Mile 12 to double the price of garri because “dollar don rise”. No circular compels landlords to demand two years’ rent upfront. Inflation is not only done to us. It is done by us, to us.
Until Nigerians learn to separate genuine cost pass-through from opportunistic markups, prices will keep climbing. The Central Bank can raise rates. The government can open borders. But if our default response to news is to hoard, hike, and hedge in dollars, we will remain our own worst economists.
Change begins when we stop performing inflation and start practicing restraint. It begins when we choose fairness to one another over short-term gain.
